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Brexit phobia #investments

Brexit phobia?

The EU referendum debate rumbles on and the stock market suffers and so do the balance sheets of investment funds and pension funds. Record low-interest rates have also been hitting pension funds. With half of Britain’s savings wrapped up in these funds and many of them facing bankruptcy we should be worried. Most people don’t seem to worry,  nationalism has taken over their brains. It is the people with real money at stake that are suffering Brexit phobia.

350 million?

The figure of 350 million a week is being bandied about as the weekly cost of our membership of the EU. The Treasury who actually pays the money sets the figure at around £250 million which is less, but still a lot of money.

Yes, 250,000,000 pounds

Yes, it is a lot of money and works out to around 12 billion a year. Iain Duncan Smith is one of the people supporting Brexit who also made people homeless by implementing the bedroom tax and drove disabled people to suicide with welfare reform that we were told would save 15 billion, except it didn’t because even the House of Lords intervened to stop some of the most extreme measures. These are huge sums of money, but welfare to most sensible people is important. The EU is important in guaranteeing workers rights, consumer rights and human rights. EU standards make all the goods we buy safer. I admit they get carried away sometimes demanding standardised bananas, but electrical safety across the EU makes life easier for manufacturers the world over. Drug testing and safety is another area where the EU benefits not only Europe but the world. Is it worth the money? Why not compare the 12 billion a year with the 350 billion that the Bank of England had to magic out of thin air to bail out the banks when they trashed the world economy in 2007.

Yes, 350,000,000,000 pounds

It is an interesting comparison.

Predicting the result.

So which way will the referendum go? Who do we believe? Do we invest while stocks are cheap hoping for the stay-in vote? Do we sell our investments in case the leavers trash the economy yet again? I don’t believe either side of the debate. I’ll go with the people who are willing to bet their cash on it and keep their mouths shut. I checked the odds on Betfair they are 1.35 to 1 (decimal)  to stay in the EU. Gamblers betting on the leave campaign winning are being offered 3.8 to one. So the little Englanders can get back £38 if they bet a tenner on leaving. Will they put their money where their mouths are?

Brexit phobia

Yes, I still have a touch of Brexit phobia. If the stay campaign wins, we know what will happen. If they leave campaign does win, there will not be a change in government. Boris won’t become prime minister and his band of failed politicians will disappear into mist and wander in the political wilderness until some other flag-waving opportunity arises to challenge a government that has too much invested in the EU to trash our relationship with it. A bit of Brexit phobia is justified, we have had shock results before but I’m not selling my Lloyds shares just yet, despite the government losing a billion every time the price drops a penny. If the vote goes to the stay-in side, Lloyds shares could soar and so could their profits even with a transactions tax.

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