Gazing into the crystal ball #investments
All investors need a crystal ball right now. Will Britain leave the EU? Will interest rates change? Will the oil price go up or down? Will Trump be the next president of the United States? Will things get even worse in the Middle East? Will the global economy go back into recession?
There is a lot to consider and investors have to look at all these questions. Will Britain leave the EU? I don’t care either way, but I think with the government in favour and the City of London, it’s a done deal. The propaganda will be put out by the likes of News International and people will vote based on their fear of things getting worse. By June, there will be all sorts of horror stories in the press to convince the people they will be worse off.
On interest rates, I think there will be no change this year. The oil price is something I will watch carefully. Who is suffering most? The Russians want a higher oil price and by the summer with less revenue coming from gas, they will try to do a deal. We could see Brent at $50 a barrel by summer, but not much higher.
Will the American people make Trump their next president? It doesn’t really matter, they’ve had idiots in the job before…
The Middle East
Can things get worse in the Middle East? They probably will get worse before they get better. Maybe the crazy people out there will start blowing up oil wells and reduce the supply. That would make a few people happy.
The global economy seems to be so bad, we need some agreements, maybe we will get them this year, but I expect markets to be even more turbulent.
This week the stock market has been turbulent, but I was lucky. RSA insurance reported good profits and Lloyds had good news that included not only a dividend but a special dividend. By a sheer coincidence, I bought back into Lloyds at the end of January. I more than doubled my investment last time, can Lloyds do it again? I wouldn’t be surprised.
Solo Oil continues it rise on news of the Gatwick Gusher, but we are still waiting for more news. Is it still gushing and how about the gas flowing in Tanzania? I can see the share price gushing when Solo is finally making a profit and reinvesting it.
Even Tesco picked up this week. They need to stop the silly TV adverts and put more Premier Foods products in prominent positions at the end of their aisles. I would like to see British Supermarkets favouring British suppliers a bit more. Leave it to Aldi and Lidl to sell German wines and beers. British beer is better anyway!
The FTSE 100 is over the 6000 mark at the time of writing and so perhaps heading back towards the heady heights we saw last year. We need a period of calm with no global events to panic the traders in the City of London. Not much chance of that, but they might be calmer and take the bad news better if they can chill out in their lunch hour and sunbathe. Let’s hope for a good summer…