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Planning for 2018 #finance

Planning for 2018 will be difficult because there is so much uncertainty caused by Brexit. I will hope for the best and expect the worst! Another financial crash could wipe 30% off the value of the stock market. I’m too exposed to AIM companies so I would be hit worse, perhaps losing half my portfolio. I can survive that.

planning for 2018

Stress test

Last week’s post was about stress tests and besides a stock market crash, we also need to consider what would happen if we lost our income for a period of time. Most financial advisors suggest we should have enough savings to survive for 3 months in the event of a loss of income. For most people, that would be a sufficient buffer but you can’t have too much money saved ready for that rainy day.

AIM

My AIM shares have been doing better with Immupharma doubling in value. Today, it is up to 130.5 and looks like settling around that level until the next stage of the development of its innovative new drug for lupus. Verona Pharma hasn’t made any progress but has been tipped by a broker in a research note and so too has Solo Oil as a ‘speculative buy’.  I hope 2019 will be the year that those companies come good.

FTSE 100

My holdings at the other end of the market aren’t doing so well but at least Lloyd’s Banking Group has stopped falling and is up 3% this morning. Tesco has also made gains since last week. These two are important because I see them rising and then I’ll sell. They are not shares I intend to keep long-term. Tesco is making me a decent profit now and so I can sell when I’m ready. Lloyd’s has a way to go yet. Premier Foods is my long-term small cap and is overdue to soar to new heights. I really hope after holding PFD for years they will finally break out of their under-capitalisation trap. They should make some profit over the Christmas period which they need to plough into marketing and try to get back to a premier position. They have been selling their products in pound shops for long enough. Debenhams declared a dividend yesterday when they can ill-afford to pay one. They need to reinvest, they were a premier store and now they have a permanent sale on. The same applies to the AA who need to expand their operation and provide the motorist with more services and products and freeze the cost of membership.

Santa rally

There are weak signs of the so-called Santa rally with ITV making gains and Carillion finally seem to have stopped falling after losing £2 a share I have doubts whether they can recover. I do remember Lloyd’s falling to 30p and then recovering to 90p, so anything is possible.

2018

That’s it for this week. I will be making some forecasts or guesses at what will happen in 2018 before the new year! If you would like to follow my blog just enter your email address at the top of the sidebar or on mobile near the comments box. You can follow me on Twitter for updates or find links on my Facebook page.

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