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Signs of panic #finance #investments

I am always looking for signs of panic as I watch the tos and fros of the stock market. Panic selling crashes the share price and allows us to pick up a bargain. The opposite of panic is over-excitement which can lead to an inflated share price and an opportunity to sell.

signs of panic

This week

My portfolio made gains this week again so things are looking up. Carillion published its half-year report today and it wasn’t received well and the 13% drop this morning could be a sign of panic. Overall, it wasn’t too bad. Carillion started the week at 43.5 (the BID at last Friday’s close) and it is 55 this morning and so overall we’re about 25% up on the week. Immupharma made more gains and is up 20% over the past two weeks and the news on its lupus drug all looks very positive. ITV has made a little progress over the past two weeks too,  perhaps indicating that they are expecting a good Christmas period.

Solo Oil

Solo Oil published its half-yearly report yesterday and it looked promising but it also looked boring. It basically said nothing new and as usual, the share price dropped again. Solo must be the only company that puts out good news and it causes the share price to drop. A good rumour does get a lot of over-excitement amongst holders, though. That might be the time to sell in the future.

Premier Foods

I’ve stuck with Premier Foods through thick and thin, mostly thin. I think they can recover but they need to reduce costs and repackage some of the core products. Many of the products rely on cold weather for sales. They need to balance that out with summer products. Mr Kipling should provide that summer revenue but I see those products discounted in pound shops and nowhere near prominently displayed in supermarkets. The packaging needs to be made more attractive and the marketing updated too.

Signs of panic?

There can be other signs of panic in the market that will affect share prices. Just about anything to do with Brexit will tend to panic the whole market. Many companies are highly leveraged and so the current chatter about interest rates rising is a cause for concern as well. The opposite is true as well because some companies benefit from higher rates. I think the banks are a good investment at the moment for that reason. Barclay’s and Lloyd’s seem under-priced right now.

Overall, I think the market will drift upwards for a while. All the signs of panic associated with Brexit seem to be priced in now, so we should see general but slow upward movement through Autumn.

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