Any sign of common-sense and cooperation between the superpowers is good for the global economy. There doesn’t seem to be much chance of that at the moment as things get more volatile. Someone once said there is never a bad day on the stock market, when it’s down you buy and when it’s up you sell. It’s not quite as simple as that but there are always opportunities. We need certainty but we find continued risk and uncertainty.
In volatile markets, you have to assess risk and make forward predictions. The AIM is one of the most volatile and you have to look not only at the current value of a company but at the potential value. I’ve been watching Solo Oil and the price dropped quite dramatically from a high of 0.8 right down to 0.45 yesterday. Those are the bid prices and the spread at the close yesterday was a massive 20%. That was obviously the market makers manipulating the price to trigger stop losses and increase their margin.
Most people understand the basics of economics. Recently there has been a worldwide glut of oil and so there was competition among producers that led to the oil price falling to below $50 a barrel which meant many producers were selling at a loss. Supply and demand largely dictate prices but in the case of oil, we also had to look at how much oil was stored. It will take a while before those stocks are deleted. When oil stocks are low then the oil price could soar to new heights again.
As a small investor, I obviously watch the stock market mostly to look for bargains but also to look for trends. I also watch some of the forums to see what other investors are saying. There is a lot of ramping because sentiment does influence buying and selling but not to an extent that we can influence it. I do suspect that traders in the City of London are more positive and tend to buy on days when the sun is shining! I don’t base my dealing on the weather forecast, though.
Regular readers will know that I write about being thrifty on Thursdays with the exception of yesterday when I didn’t have time to write a post. In January we shop around less because we have less money to shop with. It is a frugal month for most people after the excesses of Christmas. I actually spent more on my credit card so have an unusually large bill next month. This month has been a month of making investment decisions.
The stock market will close at lunchtime today and for small investors, it will be the ending of trading for 2016. Did we have a good year? I saw my portfolio take a huge dive following the Brexit vote but as the market recovered my returns recovered too. So I’ll be ending 2016 reasonably happy with my investments.
Many investors make an investment in a small company and hope they make it big. I have high hopes that Solo Oil will make it big with its shares in oil discoveries both in Tanzania and in the UK.
I’m watching interest rates around the world. It seems the Federal Reserve will be the first to normalise interest rates. It could be as early as next month but many pundits are betting on December. That could be the trigger for other central banks to raise their rates too. It would certainly have an effect on the value of the US dollar as more money would be invested in the US as international investors look for better returns on their funds. That, in turn, would have a negative effect on other currencies including the GBP.
The stock market rallied a bit yesterday after the Federal Reserve decided to delay interest rate rises to later in the year. Uncertainty still worries investors and it seems this morning some dealers are taking profits and so the main market is down. I would be down too, but diversity rules for me and so I’m up as some of my AIM shares come good.
Pharma in focus
Pharma in focus was really the theme of the week with Immupharma soaring as trials of its Lupuzor drug appear to be successful. The inventor of the drug is also due to give a lecture on the developments which is expected to be positive news. In early trading today, many investors were selling and taking profits and so quite a big drop this morning. (more…)
This week the offer for Premier Foods by McCormick was withdrawn but the offer of 65p a share did show the hidden value in the company. It seems Nissin is still increasing its holding in the company and their joint venture seems a good deal for both parties. Premier’s share price still plummeted down to 42.5. This is still better than it was before the offer. (more…)
Market risk changes constantly. Economic downturns, terrorist risk, perceived risks by rating agencies and political risk all weighs on sentiment. The sentiment that drives buying and selling in the market. (more…)
When the FTSE 100 was over 7000, some pundit was predicting it would crash 20%. That would make it 5600, is that the bottom? Is that the magic number where we can all breathe a sigh of relief? Maybe not… (more…)
I was reading a forum this morning and someone suggested the reason by the world’s stock markets were so unstable was the robots having a laugh at our expense. Many transactions are now done by computers these days! (more…)
The Federal reserve increased interest rates this week. So is this the first sign of a genuine global economic recovery? With a low oil price driving a recovery and stabilising inflation we could now have a chance for growth. (more…)
September and October weren’t good months on the investment front for me and November has been decidedly choppy. The stock market is volatile with the FTSE 100 bouncing around a bit. But there is some good news. (more…)
I have noticed recently that many company directors don’t seem to care about shareholders until they need capital. Shareholders need to be kept informed and this is doubly true for small companies on the AIM. They should have a director whose sole responsibility is to engage with investors. (more…)
Most investors suspect market abuse, but insider trading and the passing of insider information is hard to prove. Share prices often rise suddenly and the reason emerges sometime later. Even the delay in making market movements public which are usually 15 minutes is suspicious. (more…)
The FTSE 100 is up this morning after some positive news from the US, but investors are still nervous. Private investors expect a real terms return on their investment that reflects the risk they are taking. (more…)
We have to think both short term and long term when we invest. While we want to see a return on our investments on paper because that gives us a virtual return and so adds to our financial security. We also want to see real returns when we sell or when we collect dividends. (more…)
There are many different kinds of investment. Even buying tools so you can grow vegetables in the garden or do your own DIY can be an investment. Investments can save you money, make you money or simply provide a little insurance and peace of mind. Something you can sell when times are hard. (more…)
I won’t pretend to be an expert on the world economy, but there does appear to be bubbles and cycles. Cycles when the Chinese Yuan is strong and then a cycle when the Yuan is weak. Do these cycles just happen or are they engineered by governments? The answer this week, was the value of the Yuan being cut by the Chinese government. Bubbles too can be engineered by governments, especially property bubbles, like we see in London now. (more…)
It was another boring week watching the stock market. The FTSE 100 is still down at 6744.47, much lower than it’s high of 7122.74. I think it’s unlikely to recover until we have some good news from Europe and Greece in particular. Austerity seems to be stifling international trade. (more…)
The good news this week was that RSA Insurance may be taken over by Zurich. That sent the price up to 518, but it has dropped back to 516. (more…)